多了打不下，自己扩充一下。Isn't it great when a plan comes together? A few months ago Beijing was fretting about an apparent collapse in demand for Muted sales data – sales of passenger cars fell 35 per cent between March and August – suggested that China would be lucky to get anywhere near its target of shifting 10m vehicles in Some pretty blunt instruments later – tax cuts and subsidies for smaller vehicles – and autos are flying off the With 7m new vehicles shifted in the first quarter (up 4 per cent year on year)， China has zoomed past the US (2m， down 38 per cent) as the world's largest At that run rate， Beijing will beat its 2009 target by early D No wonder this week's Shanghai auto show is more festive than equivalent events in the west， which are being scaled back or canned But delegates should keep some champagne on Automakers are not necessarily looking at better profits: minivans mean mini- Sales of vehicles with bigger engines are falling， as they are everywhere This year's overall improvement in sales is almost certainly linked to rampant credit growth， which the banking regulator last week said it was looking to And the industry continues to grapple with structural demand Take cars: sales growth averaged about 40 per cent a year in the six years to 2008， when annual growth slipped to 7 per Even with the punchy start， 2009 is set for about 5 per cent， estimates C For a country with third-world penetration – 32 cars per 1，000 people in 2007 (compared with 800 in the US) – that kind of growth is hardly Chinese savings rates are among the highest in the world， implying huge potential for But as Morgan Stanley points out， given off-book liabilities such as retirement， healthcare and education， the average consumer is practically in negative In spite of Beijing's inducements， households may continue to prioritise these invisible debts over a new set of 一项计划的出台不是很棒吗？几个月前，中国政府为汽车需求锐减而烦恼不已。从去年3月至8月，乘用车销量减少了35%。疲软的销售数据表明，中国要是能接近实现2009年销售汽车1000万辆的目标就算走运了。采取了一些相当直接的措施（对小排量汽车下调购置税并提供补贴）后，汽车销量急速上升。今年第一季度中国新车销量达270万辆，同比增加4%，超越美国（220万辆，同比减少38%）成为世界第一大汽车销售市场。以这种增长速度，中国政府在12月初就能完成2009年的目标。难怪与西方规模缩减或压缩在一起举行的同类展会相比，本周的上海车展更具节日的欢乐气氛。但参展代表们先别忙开香槟庆祝。汽车制造商不一定能实现更多利润：微型车意味着微利。和世界其它地区一样，大排量汽车的销量正在减少。今年销量的总体改善几乎必定与信贷的高速增长有关——中国银行业监管部门上周已表示将注意控制。而汽车制造业还要继续努力解决结构性需求问题。以轿车为例：截至2008年的6年里，轿车销量以每年40%的平均速度增长，但2008年放缓至7%。虽然开局有力，但据花旗(Citi)估计，2009年汽车销量增幅可能在5%左右。对于一个汽车普及率仅为第三世界水平的国家——2007年，每千人拥有32辆汽车，而美国每千人拥有800辆——这种增长根本算不上惊人。中国的储蓄率位居世界前列，意味着巨大的消费潜能。但正如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)指出的那样，如果考虑到退休、医疗和教育等账外债务，中国普通消费者实际上是负资产。因此，尽管中国政府采取了一系列刺激措施，但与购置新车相比，老百姓可能还是会优先考虑那些无形的债务负担。
